There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted. That means short-term interest rates on Treasury bonds were unusually higher than long-term interest rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has ...

A key indicator of a recession flashed a warning light two years ago. That metric once had a perfect record, but there hasn't been a crash yet. Our colleagues at The Indicator From Planet Money, ...

The 2-year/10-year Bund spread closed the week at a positive 2.7 basis points. As a result, today’s simulation shows that the probability of a return to negative spreads in the 91-day period ending ...