The convex payoff structure of prop firm accounts makes it possible to extract positive expected value net of challenge and activation fees, if you model the process—end-to-end—as a structured product. There’s obviously not an analytic solution to this optimization, but Monte Carlo simulation makes it possible to understand the optimal risk geometry for these accounts, and it allows us to determine the exact probability of passing, and net expected value, of a given strategy, given a backtest of
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